No Chance to Win?

June 26, 2015

Happy Friday!

 

Last week Kirk Kerkorian passed away.  If there’s anyone who understood risk and reward, it was surely him.  (He was one of the builders of modern Vegas.)  In reflecting on what made him a great investor, I was drawn to this comment he made back in 2006 when he decided to cash in his chips on his investment in GM.  (Recall what happened to that “blue chip” in 2008.)

 

Amen of the Week

 

"I like to gamble. But I stop gambling when there's no chance to win."

   

          - Kirk Kerkorian, Entrepreneur and Investor
            Wall Street Journal, Dec. 2, 2006

 

Might some, if not most, of today’s artificially inflated markets share this same dynamic?

 

Chart of the Week

 

With Kerkorian's comments in mind, I built the following chartto illustrate how the upside/downside of investing in long-term bonds has changed so meaningfully over the years, especially after 2008.

 

Who wants to bet that Kerkorian’s estate was holding a lot of long-term bonds?  Not me.

 

Yours in the Field,

 


 

 

Frank Byrd, CFA

 

Disclaimer:

While the information presented herein is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing in the document. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Nothing herein should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any of these securities.  It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed herein. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein. This information is intended only for the recipient of this email.  Under no circumstances should this report be shared with or forwarded to anyone else without the express permission of Fielder.

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