How Fielder is positioning amidst conflicting signals
Markets are hitting new highs, yet there are crosscurrents. Steve and Frank discuss how Fielder is navigating this evolving landscape.
Financial Repression Explained
What is Financial Repression and why it matters?
Frank and Steve explain financial repression - what it is, why it matters, and what this policy ultimately means for investors longer-term.
Rich Bank, Poor Bank
Implications of Recent Bank Runs
Fielder's Steve Korn and Frank Byrd share observations on what is happening as a result of the recent bank run on Silicon Valley Bank and others. Be sure to listen to end where Frank emphasizes the importance for financial/investment advisers to be independent of their custodians (rather than employed by a custodian).
China's Problem - Ours Too?
An Interview with Carl Walter
Fielder visits with Carl Walter, the noted author of Red Capitalism, about his new book, The Red Dream. Carl highlights the risk that China’s extreme leverage, combined with its shrinking population, poses for its banking system – and also for the system as a whole.
Inflation in 7 Pictures
Why Inflation Is Happening & How Investors Should Position
Sharing 7 pictures in 7 minutes, Frank Byrd describes what Fielder believes matters most with inflation and how investors should position accordingly.
New Year, New Positioning
How We're Positioning for 2021 and Beyond
As Fielder looks to the future, we want to fortify our client portfolios and our operations to best navigate a fast-changing world. This 4-minute video outlines our thoughts on both fronts.
What We're Seeing & Thinking
How COVID affects our longer-term outlook
What does the COVID crisis mean for investors? Perhaps more importantly, how does Washington's evolving policy response affect our outlook? Frank Byrd and Steve Korn discuss these topics.
A neat trick - while it lasts.
Frank teaches students at Columbia Business School how to do a cool card trick – except that it’s not a trick. It merely playing odds that are so good that they’re like magic. It’s an great example of how human nature can create opportunities (and risks) that statisticians miss. (April 6, 2016)
The Truth Map
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
Frank presents the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) process to the Investment Management Club at Columbia Business School. He explains how the ACH process can improve the odds of investment success. (April 2015)
How to Value a Moat (short version)
What’s a Truly Great Business Truly Worth?
This is an abbreviated 5-minute version of Frank’s 2013 lecture to Columbia Business School on “How to Value a Moat”. Frank explains why P/E and growth might not matter in determining the intrinsic value of a really great business.
House Hunting in China
A tour of 5 Chinese cities
Watch Frank’s tour of real estate during his 2011 visit to five cities in China. See footage of apartments in third tier cities that cost more than real estate in US cities like Denver or Minneapolis. (May 2011)
This Window Will Close
As Banks Retreat - Opportunities & Risks
Fielder interviews Apollo's Chief Economist, Torsten Slok. They discuss the threats and opportunities resulting from the combination of the Fed's "higher for longer" policy and banks' retrenchment from commercial lending. Torsten contends that certain types of private credit may be an attractive alternative for some investors.
2 Choices, 1 Hope
Escaping the Debt Trap Without Chewing off a Leg
US government debt now equates to ~$240,000 per American household. That’s bigger than the average mortgage balance. Steve and Frank discuss the only two policy choices that they believe Washington realistically has. They then discuss a third “Hail Mary” path that we can hope for.
Low Odds, High Odds
Lecture to Georgetown students
Frank Byrd presents a lecture at Georgetown to a class of finance students. Stock price returns, he explains, are basically a crap shoot. No one should base their financial plan on stock price returns. Odds are they will fail. Frank explains how investors can tilt the odds in their favor.
The Secret about Inflation
How the Debt Trap Forces Washington's Hand
Steve and Frank discuss why policymakers actually want - and need - inflation. They are purposefully crushing our economy near term to get inflation under control before the fall elections. Thereafter, we expect a reversion to the prior playbook: How investors should position for Washington's longer-term policy objective of inflation in order to get out of its debt trap.
Compounding in Great Businesses
A fireside chat with Len Yiow of Aravt Global
Fielder interviews Yen Liow of hedge fund Aravt Global. Yen has made a science of searching for “compounders” – durable growth businesses in strong market structures led by exceptional leaders. Yen shares what he’s learned over the years - namely, why and how he focuses on buying and holding compounders.
Throw Out the Old Playbook
It's a New Game. Time for a New Game Plan
COVID has accelerated the change already underway in Federal Reserve and government policy. This has driven markets higher, yet introduces more risk into the system. Fielder Capital's Frank Byrd and Steve Korn explain why investors need to adapt their strategies for a very different environment.
Et Tu, Buffett?
Is alpha dead?
Why is Warren Buffett, the world’s greatest active investor, telling the public to forego active funds in favor of passive index funds? Frank explains to students at Columbia Business School how they should interpret Buffett’s remarks. Should they give up their aspirations of being active managers? Frank also shares how enterprising entrepreneurs can capitalize on the zeitgeist of these passive times. A transcript of this speech is available upon request HERE.
My Biggest Mistake
A case study on Borders Books
Frank shares his biggest mistake, Borders Books, with the Advanced Investment Research class at Columbia Business School. He discusses lessons learned and suggests a tool that would have likely prevented the mistake: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). (March 30, 2015)
The Illusion of Knowledge
Ingenico Case Study
Frank Byrd speaks to the Advanced Value Investing Class at Columbia Business School. Using his work on Ingenico as a case study, Frank explains how analysts can structure their research process to develop a differentiated view and minimize first conclusion bias. (Oct. 22, 2014)
How to Value a Moat (Full Version)
The full length version
Frank’s lecture to the Applied Value Investing class at Columbia Business School (2013). Learn why return on capital is critical to appraising a firm’s intrinsic value. Frank also demonstrates why P/E can be misleading, explaining why a 10x P/E can be expensive or a 30x P/E cheap.
Inflation: From Hippies to Yuppies to Hipsters
Inflation: Past, Present and Possible Future
Frank’s presentation to students at Columbia Business School in 2010. He discusses U.S. inflation from an historic perspective from the Great Inflation of the ’60s and ’70s through the Great Moderation from 1982 to 2008. In conclusion he shares his framework for observing inflation not reflected in CPI statistics.
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