Low Odds, High Odds
Lecture to Georgetown students
Frank Byrd presents a lecture at Georgetown to a class of finance students. Stock price returns, he explains, are basically a crap shoot. No one should base their financial plan on stock price returns. Odds are they will fail. Frank explains how investors can tilt the odds in their favor.
The Secret about Inflation
How the Debt Trap Forces Washington's Hand
Steve and Frank discuss why policymakers actually want - and need - inflation. They are purposefully crushing our economy near term to get inflation under control before the fall elections. Thereafter, we expect a reversion to the prior playbook: How investors should position for Washington's longer-term policy objective of inflation in order to get out of its debt trap.
Compounding in Great Businesses
A fireside chat with Len Yiow of Aravt Global
Fielder interviews Yen Liow of hedge fund Aravt Global. Yen has made a science of searching for “compounders” – durable growth businesses in strong market structures led by exceptional leaders. Yen shares what he’s learned over the years - namely, why and how he focuses on buying and holding compounders.
Throw Out the Old Playbook
It's a New Game. Time for a New Game Plan
COVID has accelerated the change already underway in Federal Reserve and government policy. This has driven markets higher, yet introduces more risk into the system. Fielder Capital's Frank Byrd and Steve Korn explain why investors need to adapt their strategies for a very different environment.
Et Tu, Buffett?
Is alpha dead?
Why is Warren Buffett, the world’s greatest active investor, telling the public to forego active funds in favor of passive index funds? Frank explains to students at Columbia Business School how they should interpret Buffett’s remarks. Should they give up their aspirations of being active managers? Frank also shares how enterprising entrepreneurs can capitalize on the zeitgeist of these passive times. A transcript of this speech is available upon request HERE.
My Biggest Mistake
A case study on Borders Books
Frank shares his biggest mistake, Borders Books, with the Advanced Investment Research class at Columbia Business School. He discusses lessons learned and suggests a tool that would have likely prevented the mistake: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH). (March 30, 2015)
China's Problem - Ours Too?
An Interview with Carl Walter
Fielder visits with Carl Walter, the noted author of Red Capitalism, about his new book, The Red Dream. Carl highlights the risk that China’s extreme leverage, combined with its shrinking population, poses for its banking system – and also for the system as a whole.
Inflation in 7 Pictures
Why Inflation Is Happening & How Investors Should Position
Sharing 7 pictures in 7 minutes, Frank Byrd describes what Fielder believes matters most with inflation and how investors should position accordingly.
New Year, New Positioning
How We're Positioning for 2021 and Beyond
As Fielder looks to the future, we want to fortify our client portfolios and our operations to best navigate a fast-changing world. This 4-minute video outlines our thoughts on both fronts.
What We're Seeing & Thinking
How COVID affects our longer-term outlook
What does the COVID crisis mean for investors? Perhaps more importantly, how does Washington's evolving policy response affect our outlook? Frank Byrd and Steve Korn discuss these topics.
A neat trick - while it lasts.
Frank teaches students at Columbia Business School how to do a cool card trick – except that it’s not a trick. It merely playing odds that are so good that they’re like magic. It’s an great example of how human nature can create opportunities (and risks) that statisticians miss. (April 6, 2016)
The Truth Map
Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)
Frank presents the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) process to the Investment Management Club at Columbia Business School. He explains how the ACH process can improve the odds of investment success. (April 2015)
Important Disclaimers: While the information presented in the above videos is believed to be accurate, Fielder Capital Group LLC (Fielder) makes no express warranty as to the completeness or accuracy, nor can it accept responsibility for errors appearing therein. Fielder is under no obligation to notify you of any errors discovered later or of any subsequent changes in opinions. Nothing in these videos should be considered a recommendation to invest in any particular security or strategy, since they might be completely unsuitable for some investors. Speak with your financial adviser before investing. Fielder cannot promise any investment result. It should not be assumed that any of the securities, transactions, or holdings discussed will prove to be profitable in the future or that investment recommendations or decisions Fielder makes in the future will be profitable or will equal the investment performance of the securities discussed. Every investment strategy involves risk including even the complete loss of invested principal. Fielder or its employees may have an economic interest in securities mentioned herein.