Question Everything

Given how many experts misjudged the Trump surprise, I thought these recent words from Amazon founder Jeff Bezos were particularly appropriate.

“Good leaders are right a lot… I do think that with practice, you can be right more often. I’ve observed people who are right a lot, and I’ve noticed a few things about them. The first thing is that people who are right a lot, they listen a lot. And people who are right a lot change their mind a lot. And people who are right a lot – they seek to dis-confirm their most profoundly held convictions, which is very unnatural for humans. Humans mostly, as we go about life, are very selective in the evidence that we let seep into us. And we like to observe the evidence that confirms our preexisting beliefs. People who are right a lot work very hard to do that unnatural thing of trying to dis-confirm their beliefs.

And by the way, changing your mind a lot is so important. You should never let anybody trap you with anything that you’ve said in the past… Life is complicated; the world is complicated. Sometimes you get new data and you should change your mind. By the way, sometimes you don’t get new data, and you just re-analyze the situation and you realize it’s more complicated than you initially thought it was, and you change your mind… It’s frustrating to watch politicians because they’re almost not allowed to change their mind. As soon as they change their mind, they get accused of being flip-floppers. But reality is – anybody who does not change their mind a lot is dramatically underestimating the complexity of the world that we live in.”

-Jeff Bezos, Founder and CEO of Amazon

Here’s a link to the video interview. It’s only 10 minutes and is really a must-watch for any entrepreneurs or managers trying to build winning teams.]

There are inflection points in history, and this is one of them. A changed world calls for a changed outlook. Now would be a great time to seek to dis-confirm our most profoundly held convictions. Old frameworks and old lenses will give us a distorted perception of how our new world is evolving.

We’re here to help if you’d like to explore a looking-forward investment plan.

Yours in the Field,

Frank Byrd, CFA

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