Greed Is Expensive

“… be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful." Warren Buffett, Berkshire Hathaway annual letter, 2004 Negative surprises like we’ve seen this past week are always concerning. Even more so when the stock market is expensive. Today it is very expensive. That does not necessarily mean that it will go down tomorrow. What it does mean is that stocks are likely to do less well in the decade ahead. The price-to-earnings ratio of stocks is now 30x, double its historic average of 15x. This means that stocks are today priced near the same level as the 1929 market peak, just before the Great Depression. Since then, there’s only been one other time that the market’s va

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