Amidst all the anxiety and scary headlines, we wanted to update you on our latest thoughts. A summary of what follows: What this means for client portfolios The perfect scenario (and hoping for – fingers crossed!) Italy - cautious optimism The USA - our forecasts We’re still worried – that’s our job Fielder’s team is on duty What This Means for Portfolios This chart says it all: Stocks have had their fastest drop in modern history – faster than the Great Depression or Financial Crisis. (The purple line is the S&P 500 performance through last Thursday. The green line is the Great Depression, and the blue line is "dot com" crash.) Source: Factset We are counselling clients to neither get dis
As the media coverage intensifies over coronavirus (CV), we are compelled to share some under-reported observations and some variant thoughts. We’ll cover: On the Bright Side What Actually Worries Us Lies, Damn Lies, and Multiplied Probabilities Packed Subways and Empty Classrooms OK, Now What? On the Bright Side There is little doubt that the headlines on CV will get much worse in the US. We are just now beginning to test people. The more tests we do, the more CV infections we’ll report. Expect to see hundreds and ultimately thousands of infections reported. But does this mean we ultimately see mass infection? Harvard’s Marc Lipsitch thinks so. He’s been on the media circuit prognosticat
